This is about a groundbreaking science meeting at the University of Tasmania in Hobart last week. But before we get to that, some essential background information.
Independent analysis by both Berkeley Earth (US) and Copernicus (Europe) says 2024 is all but certain to be the first calendar year with a global mean temperature above the 1.5C safe limit of warming. October was the sixteenth consecutive month above that danger line.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organisation reported a month ago that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are higher – and critically, rising more quickly – than at any time since humans evolved around 200,000 years ago. The most conservative estimate of where present emission policies by all countries are taking us puts the world on track for a catastrophic 3C of warming by 2100.
Using science that pinpoints the source of CO2 molecules in the air, WMO identified burning of coal, oil and gas as the main reason for this. Yet Australian governments subsidise their extraction and facilitate their export – and prohibit dissenting actions such as the attempted Newcastle port blockade at the weekend.
Last week’s Australian Antarctic Research Conference described itself as “an emergency summit for Antarctica’s future”. That is surely an understatement.
Like their scientific mentors and elders, early-career scientists at the conference had well-founded views about the state of the planet. These people are typically less than a decade into their careers with a lifetime of discovery ahead, but their general and postgraduate studies have already equipped them better than anyone in government to understand what is happening in Earth’s Deep South.
Veteran scientists featured among presenters, but those early-career scientists, making up about two-thirds of conference participants, also made their presence felt. As the conference was winding down on Friday, they released their own take on the state of play.
Under the heading, “Make Antarctica cool again”, their communique pointed out the critical role of the Antarctic region in regulating global climate. “Nowhere on Earth is there a greater cause of uncertainty in sea-level rise projections than in East Antarctica, in Australia’s backyard,” they said, with enough water locked up in its ice sheet to raise sea levels by 50 metres.
The statement concluded with a stark warning: “Runaway ice loss causing rapid and catastrophic sea level rise is possible within our lifetimes. Whether such irreversible tipping points have already passed is unknown.”
Far from an extreme, ambit claim, this is well-founded in existing science. Conference presenters pointed to warning signs along the Antarctic coast south of Australia, including record-low sea ice coverage, incursion of warming seawater beneath glaciers, and extreme heatwaves more than 40C above average temperatures, highlighting huge uncertainties about ice melting and glacial fracturing.
More than 100 posters by emerging scientists explored hypotheses across many disciplines and topics. A small sample of their analysis: the twists and turns of ocean circulation, the diet of Antarctic krill as an indicator of Southern Ocean health, the role of sea ice in circulating ocean water and why it’s disappearing, the physics of retreating coastal ice, what drill cores of ancient ice tell us about weather, and the quality of scientific advice to politicians and diplomats.
Conferences like this used to be annual or biannual events, often featuring leading international players. But a decade or so ago they stopped happening, thanks to changing politics and shifting priorities.
Whether they’re back to stay only time will tell. A feature of this conference, at the University of Tasmania’s Sandy Bay campus, was cost-cutting. Past gatherings were in big hotels, but this year’s event would not have happened had not the university made its lecture venues and facilities available free of charge.
University Vice-chancellor Rufus Black’s eloquent opening address alluded to this, focusing on the role of science to foster the “unique collaborations and unprecedented action” required to prevent all life on Earth from being overwhelmed by climate change.
“We gather here in a university because universities were born as places of hope… They are places that have held out against the black tides of history and where even today the values we share with colleagues unite us when our countries are divided,” he said. Young people come to universities “with a belief that better is possible; we owe it to them to keep that flame alive.”
All of us, young and old, owe it to each other to hold out against that advancing black tide of history, a tide that right now is swamping considered, expert warnings about the state of the planet for the sake of personal or partisan agendas. Hats off to our young scholars.