In closing out his commentary on the latest, now almost-annual Tasmanian election night, everyone’s favourite voting analyst Kevin Bonham found a glimmer of hope in a poll that the general public has very likely concluded was a total waste of public resources.
“Once upon a time,” he said, concluding his midnight post, “minority governments in Tasmania were invariably smashed and replaced by a majority of the other side. Whatever else, [premier] Jeremy Rockliff has at least broken that hoodoo.”
After last year’s poll, Bonham raised the question of whether the minority government that emerged from it was “Hare-Clark’s new normal”. Time will tell, but the 2025 outcome suggests that might well be the case.
Bonham quoted this Rockliff statement ahead of last year’s election: “The only way to restore the stability and certainty Tasmanians need is to re-elect a majority Liberal government.” The premier had to swallow those words when the election forced him into negotiating a deal with Jacquie Lambie Network independents.
That is probably why he avoided hammering the majority government line ahead of the latest poll, a lesson Opposition leader Dean Winter also took to heart. Except that neither of them, for reasons well worth exploring, would countenance any sort of alliance, under any circumstances, with the Greens. As if they were the Plague, or a coven of witches, or death cap mushrooms.
The Liberal party’s 2025 vote will secure it at least 14 and possibly several more seats. It won’t win majority government but if the party can find two or three independent MPs willing to keep it in office – not easy in a generally progressive field – it will be able to avoid the dreaded Greens.
That’s not the case for Dean Winter. Let’s assume he remains leader of his party – probable but not certain given the fact that Labor will be at least four seats behind the Liberals. Like Rockliff he will need independent MP support to secure government, but unlike Rockliff he won’t do it without the Greens as well.
The Greens are a party that makes others feel uncomfortable. Some of this is because they can come across as a bit superior, zealous and unyielding. It’s hard to be easy-going about portentous subjects with grave implications for our future, although maybe sometimes they could ease up a bit.
The Greens’ main focus is climate and the environment. These things are way outside everyone’s comfort zone, but especially so in the case of governments and politicians facing constant pressure to resolve things now if not sooner, who are on the whole not visionaries or big thinkers.
That’s okay. We don’t need the big-picture stuff constantly thrust in our faces, and we need politicians focusing in the here and now as much as the wide blue yonder. But when they ignore natural values or rate them as irrelevant, they should be challenged.
In a Wilderness Society campaign ad, Alice Hardinge spoke of politicians’ use of the word“activist” as an insult, “as if being active in society is a bad thing”, while following a strategy of diminishing the importance of environmental issues: “They demean anyone who holds the view that Tasmania’s unique environment is special and should be better protected.”
She concludes: “All of you who are activists for a better Tasmania are inspiring and important. Your values and your efforts are too important to be sidelined by their cheap insults. Tasmania deserves … a parliament that won’t diminish Tasmania or Tasmanians.” Amen to that.
Activists bear the brunt of this mindless prejudice, but it applies in different ways to all who are concerned about damage to the environment caused by human industry, including carbon pollution of the atmosphere and degraded forest and coastal ecosystems.
When questions are raised about fish farming, logging or mining, MPs from both the major parties have gone out of their way to deride and demean those concerns as a burden on the economy. But the truth is the opposite. As former Treasury secretary Ken Henry told a National Press Club lunch this month, strong environmental laws protect productivity as well as nature.
In this election, despite a strong independent field and a resurgent Liberal party, the Greens held firm. But Labor buckled. Its progressive credentials have been badly damaged, and it is fast losing the youth vote. In its present state, it is unelectable.
It’s past time the Greens and what they stand for – most importantly effective environmental protection and strong climate policies – were given the seat at the top table they should have had years ago. If Dean Winter cannot open himself up to those crucial issues, his career ends here.