The body language said it all. In a fortnight of one-on-one meetings with the two strongmen at the head of what we’ve long considered global superpowers, China’s President Xi Jinping emerged as the man of the moment, leading a nation preparing to dominate the world.
Xi’s rivals are in a bind. In 2022 Vladimir Putin took Russia into a war he expected to win in a few days, only to see Ukraine expose weaknesses in his much-touted military. Then Donald Trump – elected president for a second time despite his attempted coup and clear contempt for the rule of law – landed his country in a disastrous war in the Middle East.
The dominant visual message from those twin Beijing summits was that one country stands head and shoulders above the rest. Xi commanded the stage, oozing assurance and authority, while Trump and Putin came across as support acts.
Trump seemed to concede that Taiwan’s independence was not a US concern. Putin failed to nail a big pipeline deal sending gas from western Russia to China. All in all, the twin summits went badly for Xi’s guests, but for him they were a clear diplomatic triumph.
Oblivious to all that, Trump left Beijing just as another meeting was winding up. Co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands in the historic Caribbean city of Santa Marta, Colombia, its title said it all: the “Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels”.
The governments headed by Xi, Trump and Putin were not invited to Santa Marta, and the latter two are openly disdainful of its aims. But China did have a notable representative – the director of its Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs and its former chief economist, Ma Jun.
While his presence at the meeting was clearly approved, Ma was also there in his own right as the institute’s celebrated founder and author of China’s Water Crisis, a 1999 book about China’s environmental challenges. And Santa Marta delegates hung on his every word as he explained how the Xi government encouraged banks to support low-carbon ventures.
The Colombia meeting resulted from widespread dissatisfaction at the 2025 Belem climate summit (COP30) over the UN failure to nail fossil fuels as the chief culprit in the climate crisis. Fifty-seven countries attended, among them a dozen Pacific nations including New Zealand, the Philippines, Canada, Chile and Mexico.
And Australia. Energy minister Chris Bowen, co-convener of COP31 in Turkiye, stayed away, but we were represented by departmental officers. Their instructions were to avoid taking binding sides on any near-term actions.
This is no surprise. The Albanese government’s position in the wake of the Hormuz Strait blockage is to “safeguard energy security”, which means using Australian gas exports to seal deals. That will benefit Australia in the short term, but does nothing for the overarching cause of reversing global warming.
As reported by Financial Times writer Pilita Clark, Australia had another presence in Santa Marta. Anchored in the city’s harbour was “Green Pioneer”, a former offshore gas supply ship converted to run on ammonia, a carbon-free fuel produced using green hydrogen. The vessel is owned by Fortescue Metals CEO Andrew Forrest.
Forrest lined up on the side of stronger climate action years ago while studying for a marine science PhD. Leading a charge for “real-zero” green energy, he argues that net-zero targets are a copout and opposes Australia’s richest miners being given diesel fuel tax credits. Needless to say he’s an outlier among his peers.
The willingness of massive fossil fuel corporations to pursue damages claims and their ability to influence election outcomes makes them a daunting prospect for anyone, even a major national government, wanting to end their privileges.
Even aside from managing fuel supplies, Chris Bowen is a busy man. While planning the next COP he’ll also have to keep an eye on our own region. In 2027 the Pacific nation of Tuvalu, with its own existential climate crisis in the form of rising seas, is co-hosting with Ireland a second conference to end the fossil fuel era once and for all.
They’re up against it. Besides the fossil fuel giants driving the global economy, they must deal with the strongman leaders who by and large have stood by oil, gas and coal. That unholy alliance is especially true for Trump and Putin, each beset by national crises of their own making.
Xi too is a strongman leader with territorial ambitions. But not yet stuck with a war he has room to play a longer game, and like any resident of water-challenged Beijing knows that the environment is not to be taken lightly. Hold that thought, President Xi.