Saturday’s election outcome might have been just another story – an old order whose time had come given its marching orders – but the rare rise in a first-term government’s vote and the unprecedented loss of an Opposition leader’s seat are signs something bigger is in play.
The parallels between the two national elections held last week are stark. In Canada on Tuesday, the Conservatives’ “unbeatable” 20-point opinion poll lead over the governing Liberals evaporated in a couple of months. Here, the Coalition began the year favourites to win but ended up with its worst-ever result.
When Donald Trump first talked about making Canada the 51st US state most Americans laughed it off as too improbable to be true, like the US annexing Greenland. So did some Canadians. But the trade war set off by his global tariffs left no doubt that Canada was in his sights – seriously. So is Greenland and its 56,000 residents, by the way.
Canada’s election saw the Conservatives beaten by Mark Carney’s Liberals and their leader, Pierre Poilievre, ousted from parliament. Days later in Australia, Anthony Albanese’s Labor government crushed the Coalition. And just like Poilievre, Opposition leader Peter Dutton lost his seat.
In both cases the link to Trump is undeniable. Both men talked up his strongman approach to government while their campaigns borrowed heavily from Trump tropes around migrants, “wokeness” and big government. When Trump’s tariffs threw global markets into chaos both men back-pedalled frantically, but in both cases it was too little too late.
Since World War II Canada, Australia and other democracies came to depend heavily on the shield of US economic and military might. But Trump couldn’t care less about defending democracy. His tariff moves and his clear preference for dictators over democratic leaders have exposed glaring vulnerabilities in the Western alliance.
“Today the Australian people have voted for Australian values…. We do not need to beg, borrow or copy from anywhere else,” said Albanese on election night. “We do not seek inspiration overseas. We find it right here, in our values and in our people.… [and] we treat people with respect.”
Carney, whose country shares nearly 9000 km of border with the US, was more direct: “Our old relationship with the US … based on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade … that Canada has relied on since the Second World War… is over.”
“These are tragedies,” he continued, “but it’s also the new reality. We are over the shock of the American betrayal. We should not forget the lessons. We have to look our for ourselves, and above all we have to take care of each other.” Echoing that sentiment, Albanese told Peter Dutton in one of their debates, “kindness is not weakness.”
Those words go to the heart of our choices. In uncertain times it’s too easy to succumb to the strongman leader demonising outsiders. A truly strong society under mature, confident leadership doesn’t scapegoat minorities but values each person’s unique qualities and treats them with kindness and respect.
Unlike Canadians Australian voters are separated from the US by the vast Pacific, yet our “special relationship” with the US has been fundamental to our world outlook. Now, along with Canada and many nations, the America we thought we knew, that big friendly teddy bear, is being turned into a grizzly. Its leader is now operating outside laws that once constrained errant presidents.
If Australians don’t know this they sense it, recognising the bully that is Trump. Last week James Campbell (Herald-Sun) and The Australian’s Joe Hildebrand identified plenty of mistakes in Peter Dutton’s campaign, but they left out the biggest one of all: finding common cause with America’s autocrat.
It takes real strength – clear vision and more than a little courage – to stand up to bullies. Many US institutions have succumbed to Trump, but some media organisations, law firms, universities, unions, professional bodies and many individuals have not.
This includes federal employees shown the door, people branded by Trumpians as wastrels and time servers, who do things the public needs but the private sector can’t do: lifesaving work like managing epidemics, rescuing people, ensuring air safety, and the likes of social and health security and maintaining national parks. Everyone knows this, but some have chosen not to.
A couple of further points: Labor’s election win was not a blanket endorsement of its policies everywhere, something Tasmanian Labor would do well to remember. Related to that, of the many loose ends remaining, the most glaring is major parties’ inability to reckon with environmental degradation and climate change. Those threats make Donald Trump seem insignificant.
While some Green seats were lost, the overall vote for that party and for climate-conscious independents held up well, a telling reminder that for Australian voters, whatever the Liberal and Labor parties might say, this is very much unfinished business.
HOBART’S MOUNTAIN is the subject of a free event for people seeking to preserve the Mountain’s natural qualities, at Fern Tree Community Centre next Saturday from 1pm.